Do you want content like this delivered to your inbox?

Should You Postpone Your Real Estate Plans Until Spring? | Issue 180 Guelph Weekly Sales Report

Paul Fitzpatrick

Paul is a 40+ year resident of Guelph; a University of Guelph Grad in 1986 with a degree in management economics...

Paul is a 40+ year resident of Guelph; a University of Guelph Grad in 1986 with a degree in management economics...

Nov 15 6 minutes read

November 15, 2019 Sales Summary:

Should You Postpone Your Real Estate Plans Until Spring?

Relatively speaking, this week was considerably better than the same week last year and even better than the same week in 2017.  Looking at the recently released October numbers for the City of Guelph, we see that this past October set the new high water mark for Guelph, with 202 homes sold.  Since 2008, when 127 homes changed hands, there has been a 59% increase in home sales for the month of October.  The Guelph market has been increasing, not only in price, but in the number of homes changing hands as well.  Further evidence that the Guelph market is growing and not likely to see any downward pressure on pricing.

The chart above shows 3 key elements we watch.  Leading indicators of market conditions are the number of new listings that enter the market each month (grey) and the number of homes for sale in any given month (light blue).  Leading indicators like new listings and available listings are good indicators of what kind of activity and sold prices we can expect. 

The monthly sales (dark blue) are a lagging indicator, showing how busy the month has been. The October 2008 data shows 451homes for sale and sales of 127 or 28.2% of the available inventory and median market time of 33 days.  The median sales price was $249,750 and home sellers were getting 96.9% of their list price. Most would have called 2008 a balanced market, or slightly leaning towards a buyer’s market.  This, despite the meltdown that had been going on in the US market.

Fast forward to 2019, with 202 sales in October out of 274 homes available for sale that month meant 73.7% of the available homes were sold – certainly contributing to the 99.2% sales price to list price ratio that sellers were achieving along with a median sales price of $535,000.  These indicators point to a continued strong seller’s market.  

Looking at the increasing number of sales, the dropping inventory of available homes, and declining number of new listings coming into the market suggests that our market will be in for some turbulent weeks and possibly months.  A couple of scenarios could come into play here.  If buyer demand remains strong over the winter, you can expect prices to continue on their upward trajectory.  Typically prices dip over December through February, as fewer buyers will brave the cold conditions and holiday period to buy homes.  

With continued strong demand we may see an early spring in terms of sellers rushing to the market to take advantage of the strong sellers' market, which will mitigate prices moving much higher.  In the past, the bulk of sellers will wait for spring-like weather before going to the market. That also ties in with most people not wanting to move during the cold and wet months.  

What’s your strategy? 

As a buyer, and depending on your timeline, you might want to try doing something sooner than later, because if conditions prevail I suspect prices will be up another 5-10% by spring.  You might not have a wide range of homes to choose from but I believe this will be your opportunity to get the best pricing.  

A home seller’s strategy?  Listing sooner will give you exposure to a hungry pool of buyers that are much more active this year than in previous years. 

The one strategy that will work for both buyers and sellers; make sure the agents and brokerage you choose to work with understand the local market dynamics and are able to give you the market intelligence to make a decision that gives you full advantage.  The Home Group Realty Team digs deep into the local market conditions and numbers to make sure their clients get every possible advantage in what is a challenging and potentially confusing housing market.  


The past week in the Guelph real estate market was quite active.  47 homes were reported sold with the median house sale looked like the following; 

4 bedrooms, 2 baths, 1435 square feet and selling for $550,000 or $383.55/sqft.  That median home took 27 days to sell and the homeowner was able to negotiate 98.02% of their original list price.  23.4% or 11 of the 47 homes sold at or above list price.  A week of sales at prices that reflect strong buyer demand.  

Enjoy the weekend and thanks for reading.  

Not a subscriber? Sign up today and get access to weekly home sales for all of Guelph's neighbourhoods.


Featured Property

81 Fireside Drive, Breslau

3 BED  |  2.5 BATH  |  2,174 SQ FT


A fantastic family home in charming & convenient Breslau. The popular layout features an open concept main floor with gorgeous finished and plenty of light, a spacious second-level family room, and luxurious master suite with oversized tub and walk-in closet. With oversized pie-shaped lot and friendly neighbours, this home has a small town feel with the convenience of the city.

View this gorgeous home this weekend at one of our public open houses:

Saturday, November 16th from 2 to 4 PM


Want to know what 

your neighbour's house 

sold for? 

Get access to weekly sales reports for all of Guelph's neighbourhoods.



We use cookies to enhance your browsing experience and deliver our services. By continuing to visit this site, you agree to our use of cookies. More info

Terms of Use

This website is operated by Home Group Realty Inc., a Brokerage who is a member of The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). The content on this website is owned or controlled by CREA. By accessing this website, the user agrees to be bound by these terms of use as amended from time to time, and agrees that these terms of use constitute a binding contract between the user, Home Group Realty Inc., and CREA.


The content on this website is protected by copyright and other laws, and is intended solely for the private, non-commercial use by individuals. Any other reproduction, distribution or use of the content, in whole or in part, is specifically prohibited. Prohibited uses include commercial use, “screen scraping”, “database scraping”, and any other activity intended to collect, store, reorganize or manipulate the content of this website.


REALTOR®, REALTORS®, and the REALTOR® logo are certification marks that are owned by REALTOR® Canada Inc. and licensed exclusively to The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). These certification marks identify real estate professionals who are members of CREA and who must abide by CREA’s By-Laws, Rules, and the REALTOR® Code. The MLS® trademark and the MLS® logo are owned by CREA and identify the professional real estate services provided by members of CREA.

Liability and Warranty Disclaimer

The information contained on this website is based in whole or in part on information that is provided by members of CREA, who are responsible for its accuracy. CREA reproduces and distributes this information as a service for its members, and assumes no responsibility for its completeness or accuracy.


Home Group Realty Inc. may at any time amend these Terms of Use by updating this posting. All users of this site are bound by these amendments should they wish to continue accessing the website, and should therefore periodically visit this page to review any and all such amendments.